Are we Americans safer with the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri?

 Many of us remember the morning of September 11, 2001, when hijacked planes flew into the World Trade Center, into the field at Stonycreek Township Pennsylvania, and into the Pentagon.  I was in the Pentagon at that time, and after the first plane flew into the World Trade Center North Tower, a number of my colleagues and I were watching the TV in my office, as were thousands of Americans also watching the on-going events.  As we saw the second airplane flying into the South Tower, my comment was that this was obviously a planned attack, and the next target was going to be a command center someplace else in the country.  And sure enough, 39 minutes later, American Airlines 77 flew into the Pentagon.  As we evacuated the building standing there watching the Pentagon burn and hearing that the World Trade Center Towers had collapsed, I knew that life as we knew it was about to change and to change dramatically. 

Shortly after the attack, while watching the news, Usama bin Laden, the 9/11 mastermind, was sitting in some remote place in Afghanistan, and sitting next to him was his second-in-charge, who was also his personal physician, Ayman al-Zawahiri. 

Fast forward to May 2, 2011, President Obama addresses the Nation that Usama bin Laden was killed in a special ops raid at his clandestine compound in Pakistan.  Soon afterwards, we saw videos of his second in command – Ayman al-Zawahiri – claiming to now being in charge of the al Qaeda terrorist group, and he would seek revenge on the U.S. for the killing of their leader, Usama bin Laden.  And then fast forward a little over 11 years after bin Laden was killed, and nearly 21 years since 9/11, to July 31, 2022, when al-Zawahiri was killed by a drone hellfire missile, while standing on his porch in his safe house, in downtown Kabal, which is reported to have been a house a senior Taliban leader owned.  So much for the agreement the U.S. made with the Taliban about not providing safe-haven for al-Qaeda or any other terrorist groups!

After the 9/11 attacks, our national interests leading us into Afghanistan, were to defeat terrorist organizations with global capability that would place our national interests at risk (e.g., Al Qaida (AQ)), and to deny nations that provided safe haven to these organizations (e.g., the Taliban).  We achieved the second goal late in 2001 with the collapse of the Taliban regime, but that was reversed when the U.S. and NATO withdrew from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021.  We claimed that even though the Taliban was now back in power, they would not provide safe haven, thus preserving a key national interest that we’ve held since September 11, 2001.  And although the Taliban agreed not to provide safe haven, that proved to be a lie with Zawahiri living in the home of a senior Taliban official. 

Defeating Al Qaida would prove to be more of a wishful optimistic interest, simply because its leadership was so clandestine and illusive.  Nevertheless, with the killing of Usama bin Laden, we had good reason to believe Al Qaida (AQ) was indeed defeated.  But soon afterwards, the second in charge – Zawahiri - quickly assumed the leadership role, and was killed over 11 years later.  We also know that although we may have removed both AQ’s leaders, we have yet to counter its ideology, which remains prevalent in AQ variants that have emerged and which continues to spread in virtual space.

Nonetheless, killing al-Zawahiri with over-the-horizon systems is indeed a remarkable achievement, and it also sends a huge message to the other wannabees.  And to the doubters when President Biden assured Americans we had this capability, it certainly gives this Administration a lot more credibility.  But in the intelligence community, human intelligence (often referred to as HUMINT) provides the highest degree of accurate intelligence, and our intelligence operators are highly skilled at using their contacts on the ground to get this most important source of intelligence.  I am certain we still have numerous contacts from our nearly 20 years in Afghanistan, but this is a perishable source, and over-the-horizon can never take the place of having operators on the ground, working with contacts, to obtain accurate HUMINT intelligence.  

So, are we safer with al-Zawahiri’s death?  I think most would agree that for the time being, “yes,” we can sleep safer tonight.  But his killing only opened Pandor’s Box a bit more, and a few risky issues have now leaked out of the box, and if we cannot get them under control, we will quickly forfeit what we have gained with al-Zawahiri now gone. 

First is safe haven.  Picture Usama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri on September 10th, 2001, sitting next to each other discussing the pending United States attack.  They are comfortable, safe, and secured under the Taliban government, which provided for them safe haven to recruit, train, plan, execute, and to spread its poison ideology.  Now, almost 21 years later, Zawahiri is sitting on his porch in a safe house in downtown Kabal, under a Taliban government that has once again provided him safe haven.  Remember – we went to war in Afghanistan to overthrow the Taliban government for providing safe haven for terrorist organizations that were a threat to U.S. interests.  I have to ask, what was different between September 10th 2001 and July 30, 2022?  You have a terrorist organization (al Qaeda) that continues to threaten the United States, and a radical government (Taliban) providing safe haven for them to recruit train, plan, execute and to spread its poison ideology.  Granted al Qaeda’s capacity has diminished significantly, its ideology remains as poisonous as it has been over the last 21 years.

We went to war in Afghanistan because two critical national interests were at risk.  Now nearly 21 years later, the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri has shown us that these two critical national interests have re-emerge once again.  I certainly hope we will get ahead of them this time, and not have to react after another al Qaeda (or other) terrorist attack killing another 2,977 Americans, as we experienced on 9/11.  We would be foolish not to.